Dumb Crowds

tornpaige — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 23:41:09 +0000

Significant value is attributed to the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ in the web 2.0 sphere. But what if that crowd isn’t particularly bright? History demonstrates that a collective knowledge is not always the wisest. Why else would the stock market crash, or a nation elect George W. Bush (twice)? Just because an idea reaches critical mass and adoption, it doesn’t always mean it’s the best course of action.

Wikipedia lists 4 elements required to constitute a wise crowd:

1. Diversity of Opinion

2. Independence

3. Decentralization (drawn on local knowledge)

4. Aggregation

So even if the crowd is clever, if it’s not a diverse crowd, it is not a true reflection of society and therefore does not result in good or sound judgment. Let’s take this assumption and apply it to the web. If you consider who exactly constitutes the members of the web 2.0 community, I think you’ll find a pretty homogenized group. The web developers I know are pretty similar; they are middle-to-upper class young adults, university educated and predominantly white. Stereotypes are stereotypes for a reason — they are typically true.

If these are the folks – my peers – that are building the communities that form the next generation of the web, perhaps we should be a bit concerned. No doubt they are qualified to perform that function, but will the communities being built ever mirror an actual snapshot of real communities on a global scale? Even with the best of intentions, it seems there are voices that will not be heard.

» Wisdom of crowds

Dumb Crowds